Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week, in response to the October 1 federal government shutdown, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac temporarily relaxed certain mortgage requirements to mitigate disruptions for affected borrowers, with policies effective immediately until full government operations resume. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 0.4% increase in mortgage credit availability for September, marking four consecutive months of improvement and signaling a gradual loosening of lending standards. Looking ahead, iEmergent forecasts U.S. mortgage originations to reach $2.27 trillion in 2026 — a 13% increase over 2025. The number of loans originated is expected to grow nearly 10% year-over-year.
Below are key events from the first week of October impacting our business.
October 13, 2025
FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC EASE SOME MORTGAGE RULES DURING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. During the federal government shutdown, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have implemented temporary policy adjustments to help lenders navigate disruptions in employment, income, and flood insurance verification processes. These measures include allowing alternative documentation for flood insurance applications and waiving employment verification for federal employees when standard procedures are unavailable due to the shutdown. The guidelines are effective immediately and will automatically expire once full government operations resume. Full story from REALTOR.COM →
- Why this Matters: The temporary policy adjustments by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac help ensure continuity in the mortgage approval process during a period of federal disruption. For buyers, especially federal employees, these adjustments help ensure that mortgage approvals can proceed even when standard employment or income verification processes are disrupted. This reduces the likelihood of delays or denials, allowing transactions to move forward with greater confidence. For sellers, the relaxed requirements mean fewer deals are likely to fall through due to financing issues, helping maintain market stability and buyer demand. Overall, these measures support continued momentum in the housing market during a period of federal uncertainty. Staying attuned to these changes allows you to proactively support clients in making informed decisions.
MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INCREASED IN SEPTEMBER. Mortgage credit availability rose by 0.4% in September, reaching its highest level in four months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). The increase was primarily driven by expanded offerings and eligibility for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) products. This upward movement in the index reflects a continued loosening of lending standards, with the Government MCAI rising 0.8% and the Conventional MCAI up 0.1%. Full story from Mortgage Bankers Association →
- Why this Matters: The increase in mortgage credit availability signals a more flexible lending environment, which has meaningful implications for both homebuyers and sellers. For buyers, broader eligibility and expanded loan options can improve access to financing and enhance purchasing power. This can lead to a more competitive and inclusive market. For sellers, increased credit access means a larger pool of qualified buyers, potentially accelerating sales. Overall, the loosening of credit standards contributes to greater momentum in the housing market.
MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS COULD JUMP 13%, REACH $2.27T IN 2026. iEmergent forecasts U.S. mortgage originations to reach $2.27 trillion in 2026, a 13% increase over 2025, driven by a rebound in refinancing and home purchase activity amid slowing economic growth and easing interest rates. The firm anticipates total mortgage volume will exceed $2 trillion in 2025 for the first time since 2022, fueled by a 48% surge in refinances and a 12% rise in purchase loans. By 2026, continued growth in refinance demand and modest gains in purchase volume are expected to push total loan counts up nearly 10% year-over-year. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →
- Why this Matters: The projected rise in U.S. mortgage originations to $2.27 trillion by 2026, as forecasted by iEmergent, signals a significant rebound in housing market activity following years of subdued lending. For homebuyers, this means improved access to financing, particularly as interest rates ease and refinancing options expand — making homeownership more attainable and affordable. For sellers, increased mortgage availability and buyer demand can lead to stronger pricing, contributing to a more dynamic and competitive real estate market.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Temporary policy adjustments by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in response to the federal government shutdown are intended to help maintain loan approvals and preserve transaction continuity, particularly for federal employees impacted by verification delays. Meanwhile, increased mortgage credit availability and a projected $2.27 trillion in originations in 2026 signal a more accessible and active lending environment, creating stronger opportunities for buyers to secure financing and sellers to attract a broader pool of qualified purchasers. In this evolving landscape, it is essential to be poised amongst the noise, provide clear guidance, and equip clients with timely, data-driven insights to support confident, informed decision-making.
Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.
