Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week, Freddie Mac reported that long-term mortgage rates continued to decline in January; they’ve held within a narrow 10 basis point range just above 6% over the past six weeks. Additionally, ATTOM data shows home equity eased slightly in late 2025 but remains strong by historical standards, and improvements in affordability helped lift the national homeownership rate to 65.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025—the highest level of the year per the U.S. Census Bureau but below the 25-year average and 2004 peak.
February 9, 2026
MORTGAGE RATES DECLINED DESPITE HIGHER TREASURY YIELDS. Long term mortgage rates continued to ease in January, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.10%—9 basis points lower than December and 86 basis points lower than a year ago. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.20%, slightly above December but still well below last year. Reports of administrative support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases narrowed the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, increasing demand and helping rates drift lower. Late in the month, however, Treasury yields rose sharply amid global and fiscal pressures, partially offsetting the positive impact of the additional MBS acquisitions. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →
- Why this Matters: Lower long-term mortgage rates directly improve affordability for homebuyers, reducing monthly payments and increasing purchasing power. The recent easing in rates, driven in part by stronger demand for mortgage-backed securities, offers consumers a window of opportunity after multiple years of elevated borrowing costs. While late-month volatility in Treasury yields has tempered some of the benefit, the overall trend toward lower rates provides meaningful relief for buyers, as well as homeowners considering a refinance.
U.S. HOMEOWNERSHIP EQUITY EASES SLIGHTLY IN Q4 2025. New data from ATTOM shows homeowner equity eased slightly at the end of 2025, with 44.6% of mortgaged properties considered equity rich, down from the prior quarter (46.1%) and the Q2 2024 peak (49.2%). Meanwhile, the share of seriously underwater mortgages rose modestly to 3%, remaining near historic lows. Most states saw small quarterly and annual declines in equity-rich levels; several Southern and Western markets led the decline, while some states in the Northwest and Midwest posted gains. Regional patterns remained clear, with the highest equity-rich rates concentrated in the Northeast and West and the lowest in parts of the Midwest and South. Full story from ATTOM→
- Why this Matters: Shifts in homeowner equity shape the financial security of millions of households. When equity rich levels ease, it signals a market that is cooling from the rapid price gains of recent years, which can create more room for buyers and reduce pressure on affordability. At the same time, seriously underwater mortgages remain near historic lows, showing that most homeowners still have a strong cushion against market volatility. For consumers, this balance points to a healthier housing landscape where buyers face less overheated competition and current owners maintain solid protection for their long-term financial well-being.
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE INCHES UP TO 65.7%. The homeownership rate edged up to 65.7% in the final quarter of 2025, the highest of the year per Census Bureau data but still below both its 25-year average (66.3%) and its 2004 peak (69.2%). Gains were concentrated among the youngest (under age 35) and some older (age 55-64) households, while several middle-aged groups saw declines. Rental and homeowner vacancy rates ticked higher, pointing to a gradual increase in available housing. Total households grew to 133.7 million over the past year, driven by increases in both owner and renter households. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →
- Why it Matters: Understanding shifts in the homeownership rate helps consumers see how affordability pressures are shaping real opportunities in the market. Changes across age groups also highlight where barriers are rising or easing, offering insight into how competitive conditions may evolve. For consumers, these trends signal a market where careful planning and awareness of local conditions are essential for making informed housing decisions.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Taken together, these trends point to a market that is gradually becoming more accessible while still offering stability for current homeowners. Easing mortgage rates are giving buyers renewed purchasing power, strong but moderating equity levels are creating a healthier balance between affordability and financial security, and a modest rise in the homeownership rate shows that more households are finding paths into the market despite ongoing complexities. For consumers, this combination signals a landscape with improving opportunities, less overheated competition, and a clearer foundation for confident decision making as 2026 unfolds.
Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.
