Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week’s jobs report showed a much stronger than expected rebound, with the economy adding 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. While the headline number was encouraging, signs of cooling beneath the surface remain clear, with fewer job openings, slower hiring, and continued softness in key labor market measures. Mortgage rates moved higher for a fifth consecutive week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate rising to 6.46 percent, up from 6.38 percent the prior week, though still 18 basis points below the same period last year. Higher rates and ongoing economic uncertainty have slowed housing demand in recent weeks; however, the market remains resilient, with both total pending sales and purchase mortgage applications still running ahead of last year’s levels.
Below are key events from the final days of Q1 impacting our business.
April 6, 2026
U.S. PAYROLLS ROSE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN MARCH. The March jobs report delivered a welcome rebound, with payrolls rising by 178,000 after February losses, but the broader picture still points to a slow growth labor market rather than renewed strength. Unemployment edged down to 4.3 percent, largely due to a declining labor force, while job gains remained concentrated in healthcare and construction and losses continued in government and financial services. Wage growth softened further, hours worked declined, and long-term unemployment remains elevated, all signaling that underlying momentum is fragile. Taken together, the data is encouraging enough to keep recession fears at bay, but weak enough that the Federal Reserve remains firmly on hold, especially as inflation pressures linger and energy prices rise amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Full story from CNBC →
- Why this Matters: A steady but slowing labor market supports the Federal Reserve’s current “wait-and-see” stance, keeping policy on hold rather than moving toward cuts. Cooling wage growth reduces inflation pressure, while job gains help sustain consumer spending. For housing, a stable employment backdrop helps prevent a sharper pullback in demand, even as higher mortgage rates challenge affordability.
IRAN CONFLICT REVERSES DECLINE IN MORTGAGE RATES. After briefly falling below 6% in February, mortgage rates moved higher again in March. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.18%, up 13 basis points from February, while ending the month closer to 6.4%. The increase was driven by a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, which jumped as geopolitical tensions surrounding the conflict with Iran pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. Despite the recent uptick, mortgage rates remain lower than they were a year ago, and the Federal Reserve held policy rates steady while signaling that inflation risks have increased. Full story from EYEONHOUSING→
- Why this Matters: This rate reversal underscores how global events, not domestic economic overheating, are driving borrowing costs. For buyers who were waiting for sustained rate relief, the sudden move higher complicates affordability and timing decisions. It also adds volatility to the spring housing market, where confidence is often as important as fundamentals.
THE HOUSING MARKET WEATHERS WAR-TIME ECONOMICS. Wartime economic conditions have pushed gas prices sharply higher and driven mortgage rates up over the past five weeks from a low of 5.99% to a high of 6.64% – slowing housing demand, but not breaking it. While rates have eased slightly more recently, they remain elevated enough to cool momentum in weekly pending sales and purchase applications, even as year-over-year performance across most housing indicators stays positive. Importantly, we remain below the level where housing demand historically deteriorates more meaningfully, which has typically occurred once mortgage rates push above seven percent. Inventory continues its seasonal rise, but at a much slower pace than last year and price cuts are still running below 2025 levels. Overall, the data reflects a housing market that is absorbing higher rates and geopolitical uncertainty with resilience. The longer the Iran conflict stretches on, the greater the risk of sustained pressure on rates, confidence, and affordability. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →
- Why it Matters: Housing is now being driven less by traditional domestic fundamentals and more by external shocks that can move rates quickly and unpredictably. Even with steady employment, higher mortgage rates immediately impact buyer behavior, affordability, and confidence, which show up in the data with a lag. If rates stay below key stress levels, the market can absorb the pressure, but prolonged uncertainty increases the risk of slower transaction volume and delayed decision making. In short, the longer rate volatility persists, the more fragile momentum becomes, even in a market that otherwise remains fundamentally intact.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Stronger-than-expected job growth provides some reassurance on the health of the broader economy, but rising mortgage rates are beginning to weigh on the housing market’s early-year momentum, testing housing demand as the spring season gets underway. Unlike prior cycles, today’s rate pressure is being driven more by global conflict and resulting market volatility than by overheating domestic fundamentals, creating added uncertainty for buyers and sellers alike. For now, data suggests housing is proving more resilient than in past rate shocks, supported by limited inventory and steady employment, with demand cooling rather than cracking. That said, if higher rates persist for longer, this resilience will be increasingly tested as affordability and confidence come under greater pressure.
Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.
