Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for sales professionals. Last week, the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of the year. While this move had already been largely anticipated and factored into mortgage rates, its immediate impact was minimal. However, expectations of additional rate cuts through the remainder of this year and into next may exert continued downward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, which is the key driver of mortgage rate movements. Additionally, housing starts slowed, yet builder sentiment is growing more positive. This renewed optimism appears to be influenced by the Fed’s policy shift and the trajectory of mortgage rates. Below are key events from the third week of September impacting our business:

September 22, 2025

FEDERAL RESERVE CUTS INTEREST RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. The Federal Reserve announced a highly anticipated interest rate cut Wednesday, its first of the year, indicating that concerns about a slowing labor market now outweigh ongoing worries about inflation. After the quarter-point cut, the new range for the central bank’s benchmark rate is 4% to 4.25%. In separate projections, Fed officials said they anticipate two additional quarter-point rate cuts this year and a third in 2026. Full story from NBC News →

• Why this Matters: Declining interest rates present strategic opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Enhanced affordability can prompt previously hesitant individuals to re-enter the market, increasing the number of clients seeking informed guidance. This is a critical moment to lead with clarity and precision. Reassess affordability scenarios tailored to each client’s unique financial profile and help them navigate market noise by focusing on the factors most relevant to their goals. Your expertise is essential in translating macroeconomic shifts into actionable decisions.

HOUSING STARTS REMAINED SOFT AHEAD OF FED MEETING. New construction cooled in August, per the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Overall housing starts decreased 8.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units. Within that, single-family starts dropped 7% month-over-month while multifamily starts (which includes apartment buildings and condos) decreased 11.7% month-over-month. Permits also cooled, dropping 3.7% month overall, inclusive of a 2.2% dip in single-family permits and a 6.4% drop in multifamily permits. As of August, there were 611,000 single-family homes under construction, down 4.8% from a year ago. Full Story from Eye On Housing →

• • • Why this Matters: A slowdown in housing starts today may signal tighter new-home inventory in the future. However, current completions and builder incentives continue to present meaningful opportunities in the near term. Leverage these market dynamics by initiating strategic conversations around new-construction incentives, particularly rate buydowns and closing-cost assistance, for buyers weighing benefits of new versus existing homes. Your competitive advantage lies in your ability to act as a local expert, translating complex trade-offs into clear guidance based on neighborhood trends, move-in timelines, and total monthly payment impact.

HOMEBUILDER SENTIMENT HOLDS STEADY IN U.S. AS RATE-CUT BETS LIFT OUTLOOK. With easing mortgage rates and expectations of rate cuts top of mind, U.S. homebuilders grew more optimistic about future sales in September, even as overall confidence in the new-home market held flat. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builders’ six-month sales outlook, rose to the highest level since March. Full Story from World Property Journal →

• Why this Matters: Builder confidence serves as a key leading indicator for pricing strategies, promotional activity, and inventory release cadence. Maintain close communication with your builder representatives to stay ahead of limited-time offers, such as rate buydowns and rate lock programs, and position yourself to deliver timely, high-value opportunities to your clients.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Market activity is experiencing an uptick, reminiscent of the momentum observed late last year. The Fed’s shift in economic policy, improving builder outlook, and easing mortgage interest rates are pushing more consumers into “motivated” territory.  This environment presents a critical opportunity to lead with clarity and confidence. Your role is to harness client motivation, deliver precise guidance, and instill assurance throughout the decision-making process. Steady, informed action will not only empower your clients but also position your business for a strong close to the year.

Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.