Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. The early weeks of 2026 continue to show a market that is gradually strengthening as rates settle near the six percent range and buyers respond to a more predictable environment. Weekly indicators remain the most encouraging, with pending sales and purchase applications consistently outperforming last year. Inventory is holding at multiyear highs, builders are using incentives to keep new home activity moving, and regional affordability pockets are shaping buyer behavior in meaningful ways. While national pending sales remain essentially flat, the forward-looking data points to a market that is healthier beneath the surface.
February 23, 2026
WEEKLY PENDING HOME SALES BACK TO YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING. Weekly pending home sales rose to 59,283, up from 56,693 a year ago, marking another week of year-over-year growth in both pendings and purchase applications. Mortgage rates have held steady between 6.0% and 6.3%, with spreads normalizing and volatility easing. Active inventory sits near 700,000 homes, well above last year’s levels, while the share of price cuts has edged down from 33% to 31.9%, signaling that demand is meeting supply more efficiently than in early 2025. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →
- Why this Matters: When weekly pending home sales rise, it signals a meaningful shift in consumer behavior: buyers are stepping back into the market with growing confidence. Mortgage rates holding steady in the low six percent range provide a sense of predictability that helps buyers plan and reduces the uncertainty that has defined the past few years. At the same time, more inventory, stable rates, and a decline in price cuts all point to a market where buyers are re-engaging and sellers are aligning their expectations with current conditions. Together, these trends create the early foundation for a healthier spring season.
NEW HOME SALES CLOSE 2025 WITH MODEST GAINS. New-home sales ended 2025 with modest improvement, with December sales up 3.8% year-over-year and annual sales totaling 679,000, just 1.1% below 2024. Builders remain highly active in using incentives, with 67% offering concessions and average price reductions around 5%. Median new home prices have eased to $415,000, down 1.3% year-over-year, and months’ supply has improved to 7.6 from 8.2 a year earlier, supported by more completed homes ready for immediate occupancy. Full story from EYEONHOUSING→
- Why this Matters: Builders are playing a critical role in keeping the market moving by creating affordability through incentives and price adjustments. For many buyers, especially those struggling with resale competition, new construction is becoming a primary path into homeownership.
PENDING HOME SALES FALL NATIONALLY – BUT RISE IN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. NAR’s January pending home sales index showed a slight national decline, down 0.8% month-over-month and 0.4% year-over-year. However, regional performance varied significantly: the South and West posted year-over-year gains, while the Northeast and Midwest saw declines. With mortgage rates near 6%, an estimated 5.5 million more households now qualify for a mortgage than a year ago, creating a meaningful pool of future demand even if only a fraction act immediately. Full story from YAHOO!FINANCE →
- Why it Matters: The slight decline in national pending home sales highlights how uneven the market remains and shows why consumers need to pay close attention to local conditions more than national headlines. Even with a modest national dip, many regions are seeing real improvement, and millions more households now qualify for a mortgage as rates move closer to six percent. That creates opportunity for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines and underscores the importance of acting strategically before increased demand puts new pressure on prices.
THE BOTTOM LINE: With mortgage rates at their lowest level since September 2022, the market is healthier than the headlines suggest. Weekly indicators show consistent forward momentum, builders are actively creating affordability, and regional markets with greater inventory are already turning the corner. This remains a skills-based environment, and the professionals who can translate nuanced conditions into clear guidance for consumers will be best positioned to lead in 2026.
Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.
