Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported a modest month-over-month increase in pending home sales for February as mortgage rates declined, even though year-over-year pending sales slipped slightly. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.22% last week, up from 6.11% the prior week; however, it was still well below the 6.67% level seen at the same time last year. Momentum has improved recently, with five consecutive weeks of positive weekly pending sales growth and purchase applications up 12% year-over-year with 1% week-to-week growth. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged last Wednesday as policymakers weighed mixed labor data and headline inflation near 2.4%, with core inflation closer to 3%. Rising oil prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainty are adding upside inflation risk and increasing the likelihood that future rate cuts will be delayed.
March 23, 2026
NAR PENDING HOME SALES REPORT SHOWS 1.8% INCREASE IN FEBRUARY. Pending home sales rose 1.8% in February from the prior month and declined 0.8% from a year earlier, according to NAR. Monthly activity increased in the Midwest, South, and West while easing in the Northeast. On an annual basis, sales were higher in the South and West but lower in the Northeast and Midwest. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said the modest gain reflects improving affordability, noting that the Midwest was the strongest performer due to greater affordability, while the Northeast lagged amid higher prices and limited supply. He also noted that higher oil prices could add pressure to mortgage rates, though there is continued pent-up demand, supported by employment levels that remain well above the pre-COVID baseline Full story from NAR →
- Why this Matters: Pending home sales offer an early signal of where the housing market is heading and what conditions buyers and sellers are likely to face in the coming months. The data underscore that while the market is not surging, there is meaningful pent-up demand and shifting momentum. Informed consumers and proactive agents can use that information to their advantage — in a market like this, the advantage goes to the person who can help clients separate noise from signal and act with confidence when an opportunity is there.
HOUSING DEMAND STILL GROWING AS MORTGAGE RATES REACH INFLECTION POINT. Despite higher oil and gas prices, higher mortgage rates, and geopolitical risk, existing home sales still put up another positive week. That said, every additional week with mortgage rates above 6.25% makes it harder to keep that momentum going, especially since history shows the data struggles once rates move past about 6.64%. Pending sales and purchase applications have held up so far and inventory growth remains manageable, but rising bond yields, the market now pricing out rate cuts and talking about hikes, and nonstop headlines mean the outlook can change fast. Mortgage spreads are still doing a lot of the heavy lifting and are the main reason rates are not already higher, however new listings remain soft. The Iran conflict is now the dominant driver for bond yields, mortgage rates, inflation expectations, and how the housing market is likely to perform through the spring and summer selling seasons. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE→
- Why this Matters: This is a market where understanding rates, spreads, inventory trends, and buyer psychology is no longer optional, because clients are looking for clarity in the middle of noisy headlines and fast-moving conditions. If rates stay higher for longer due to geopolitical risk and bond market pressure, strategies that worked earlier in the year will need to adjust quickly — making education, realism, and timing the difference between success and frustration in the months ahead.
HOLDING PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE FED. The Federal Reserve maintained its pause on rate cuts at the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, holding the federal funds rate at 3.75%, where it has been since December, marking the second pause since easing resumed in September 2025. The Fed acknowledged that economic growth remains solid, the labor market is stable, and inflation is still somewhat elevated, while also emphasizing elevated uncertainty tied in part to developments in the Middle East. Chair Powell reiterated that housing activity remains weak and described current policy as mildly restrictive, with the Fed continuing to balance risks to employment and inflation. There was only one dissent in favor of a rate cut, reflecting a more dovish view on tariffs and productivity, but broader discussions centered on the uncertain impact of higher oil prices and the challenge of interpreting supply side shocks. Looking ahead, the Fed’s updated projections show slightly stronger growth expectations, higher inflation forecasts, and no return to the 2% inflation target until 2028, with policy expectations now pointing to just one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027. While Fed rate cuts do not directly move mortgage rates, they do lower financing costs for builders and developers, making supply growth more feasible, which can improve affordability, especially in a higher for longer rate environment shaped by global risks. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →
- Why it Matters: The Fed is effectively telling consumers and real estate professionals that relief is not right around the corner. For buyers, understanding monthly payment obligations and locking in decisions that fit their budget matters more than chasing a better headline. For sellers, demand is still there, but it is more rate sensitive, which means precision pricing and preparing homes properly is critical in a market where buyers are cautious and selective. For real estate professionals, this is not a market where surface level talking points work anymore. Clients want real explanations about rates, supply, and why the Fed cutting or not cutting does not automatically fix mortgage rates. With inflation expected to stay elevated and only limited rate cuts on the horizon, success now depends on education, realism, and helping clients navigate a market shaped by uncertainty.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The housing market continues to show resilience; however, rates, inflation risk, and global uncertainty are converging. Demand has improved, as seen in pending sales and purchase applications, yet it remains highly sensitive to mortgage rates that are hovering near an inflection point where momentum can fade quickly. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is signaling patience rather than urgency, reinforcing a higher for longer environment that limits affordability relief and keeps pressure on both buyers and sellers to act with intention. For real estate professionals, this is a market defined by nuance rather than headlines, where understanding market trends and consumer psychology is essential. The opportunity is still there, but it belongs to those who can explain what is actually happening, set realistic expectations, and help clients make informed decisions in a market shaped by uncertainty rather than waiting for a clear pivot.
Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.
