Each week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week, pending home sales and purchase applications recorded gains on a weekly and annual basis, with purchase applications posting double-digit year-over-year growth for the second consecutive week. Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates remain near three-year lows, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.09%, up slightly from the previous week and down from 6.96% a year ago. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau released two months of new residential construction activity following an extended delay, revealing a cautious stance among builders amid growing market uncertainty; permitting activity rose in September but pulled back modestly in October. Pending home sales jumped 25.7% week-over-week after the holiday period, though local market conditions continue to show wide variation.
January 26, 2026
LOWER MORTGAGE RATES BOOSTING DEMAND EARLY IN 2026. Lower mortgage rates are fueling renewed housing demand in early 2026, reflected in consecutive gains in purchase application activity and weekly pending home sales. Purchase applications rose 5% week-over-week and 18% year over year, marking two straight weeks of double-digit annual growth. Pending home sales reached the highest weekly total in years last week, reinforcing the trend that demand strengthens when rates approach 6%. Meanwhile, inventory continues to grow modestly, with new listings rising 5.8% annually, though the pace of growth has slowed from mid-2025 levels. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →
- Why this Matters: Together, these indicators suggest a more stable and responsive housing landscape, with early signs pointing to a more sustained recovery in 2026. Sustained lower mortgage rates are beginning to unlock pent-up demand and restore buyer confidence. The early strength in purchase applications and pending home sales suggests that consumers are responding quickly to improved affordability, setting the stage for a more active spring market.
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS COOLED IN THE FALL. Residential permitting trends through October 2025 reflect a cautious but adaptive construction landscape, with single-family permits declining 7.0% year-over-year amid affordability pressures and financing constraints, while multifamily permits rose 5.7%, signaling sustained demand for higher-density housing. Regionally, single-family permitting increased only in the Midwest, while multifamily activity expanded in the West, Midwest, and South but contracted sharply in the Northeast. At the state level, 15 states posted gains in single-family permits, while 29 states and Washington, D.C. recorded increases in multifamily permits. These patterns suggest that builders are recalibrating their strategies in response to evolving market signals, with multifamily development playing an increasingly prominent role in meeting housing demand. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →
- Why this Matters: Understanding residential permitting trends offers a forward-looking view of housing supply and builder sentiment. The divergence between declining single-family permits and rising multifamily activity reflects how developers are adapting to affordability challenges, shifting consumer preferences, and financing conditions. These patterns not only shape the types of homes being built but also influence future inventory levels, pricing dynamics, and regional growth trajectories, which are key factors for policymakers, investors, and real estate professionals navigating an evolving market landscape.
POST-HOLIDAY PENDING SALES REBOUND EXPOSES REGIONAL DIVIDES.For the week ending January 17, pending home sales surged 25.7% from the prior week, marking a strong rebound from the holiday slowdown and signaling renewed buyer engagement. With 64,572 homes sold or removed from the market, net absorption outpaced new contracts by 14,476 properties, indicating continued inventory clearance. While high-absorption markets are tightening quickly, more balanced metros reflect steadier transaction flow. Elevated relisting rates point to ongoing pricing friction, with some markets experiencing investor-driven price testing and others facing affordability constraints. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →
- Why this Matters: These dynamics underscore the importance of local market conditions in shaping buyer behavior and pricing strategies as the market transitions into a more active spring season. The national headline is “rebound,” but your strategy remains local. Markets experiencing faster tightening often face upward pressure on pricing and reduced time on market, while more balanced areas tend to see a steadier return of buyer activity. Although U.S. pending home sales rose sharply following the holiday period, absorption and relisting trends reveal growing regional disparities, underscoring the importance of local context in interpreting current market dynamics.
THE BOTTOM LINE: New data offers early confirmation that 2026 is beginning with renewed momentum across the housing market. Lower mortgage rates are driving a measurable uptick in buyer activity. The sharp post-holiday rebound in pending sales highlights growing buyer engagement, but also exposes widening regional divides, as some markets tighten quickly while others remain more balanced. Together, these trends point to a housing landscape that is stabilizing but still highly sensitive to local conditions, pricing dynamics, affordability pressures, and consumer sentiment.
Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.
